Trade!

My thoughts on the Andres Gimenez trade

I think Spencer Horwitz is a useful big leaguer. I want to start there. He’s clearly a first baseman, and the power upside really is limited. My one secret I kept to myself is that he out performed his xwOBA against RHP last year, putting up a .345 xwOBA compared to his .373 wOBA. The .373 wOBA is great, but if he’s more the .345 xwOBA guy vs RHP then he’s replaceable. In fact, the replacement is already on the team, Will Wagner, who is the more athletic Spencer Horwitz. Which is more of an insult than a compliment. Wagner is faster and a better fielder, and Wagner is neither fast nor a good fielder. I think calling them similar hitters is about right. This is a sell high/sell at cost on Spencer Horwitz.

One thing that I kept sitting with when trying to add free agents to this team is wondering how to handle a team that already is a bad base running team get worse. Horwitz was impressively bad as a base runner in 2024, he was the 15th worst player by fangraphs base running runs above average in only 97 games. The next lowest amount of games played to be that bad is Giancarlo Stanton at 114 games. Alejandro Kirk was a better base runner than Horwitz in 2024. If you look through the names of the worst, a lot of Jays show up. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was second worst. Former Jay Justin Turner was seventh worst. Kirk was 21st. Picture a lineup against RHP that features Guerrero, Horwitz, and Kirk. Wagner is going to be below average. Any free agent add is going to be a negative base runner, Anthony Santander has the sprint speed of almost a catcher now. Gleyber Torres was the sixth worst base runner in baseball. This team couldn’t afford to put out that many bad base runners in one lineup, especially when it features good not great hitters.

That’s where Andres Gimenez comes in. This guy is a great base runner. He’s stole 80 bases over the last three seasons and put up the 22nd best base running runs above average over that same span. He’s kind of what this team needs even if we were hoping for power to be added. He’s not a good hitter. This really reminds me of when they signed Kevin Kiermaier, which the first time around went great. Gimenez has that Kiermaier type floor while also being incredibly durable and only 26. He’s an astonishing defender at second, go watch one of his highlight reels. He’s the best I’ve seen since Dustin Pedroia, and I hated Pedroia so deeply. If you’re looking for small glimmers of offensive hope, he did underperform his xwOBA by 18 points. Problem is his xwOBA was .299. Though, his xwOBA vs RHP was .309. That’s the best I can do for you. He’s still so young though. It’s clear they bought low to me, I just don’t think he’s ever going to hit worse than his 83 wRC+ of 2024, and even there he put up 2.8 WAR. Hell, if you REALLY want some propaganda, go check out his baseball reference WAR over the last three years. I’ll save you some time: 7.4, 5.3, 4.0. That’s a site using defensive runs saved in their WAR, and if you look at some of the signings the Jays have made, I’d wager they have a system that is similar. Look at Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Daulton Varsho or Ernie Clement. Those are players they’ve brought in and they are loved by DRS.

Sure, the first big move not being a power bat or an ace isn’t any fun. But it’s funny, earlier today Sports Info Solutions shared an article about pitchers that overperformed their expected numbers. Three Jays starters featured, Jose Berrios, Bowden Francis, and Kevin Gausman. Look, I like the Jays rotation, they do something I love, provide volume. But this team needs excellent defence to make sure it’s good volume they’re providing. This trade is part of keep the pitching solid. Jays starters make sure to stay healthy, and you go catch the ball as much as possible behind them. That’s been the deal, and it needs to keep going, even with adding an ace, or a pitcher to move everyone else down a notch.

The last immediate thought was is this Bo’s replacement? There was talks in Cleveland of Gimenez moving to short for them, and maybe that’s what the Jays plan is. Is this a Trevor Story Xander Bogaerts situation? Story played one year as a superior defender at second to Bogaerts staying at short and then leaving for free agency. Is that Bo’s fate? Is he being traded this offseason? I don’t think so. Maybe they don’t mess with Gimenez at second, considering how incredible he is there. But it ran through my head.

Nick Sandlin is a nice enough little throw in. He’s a bat misser with a home run problem, the exact guys worth giving a shot to. Plus, this bullpen just needed bodies. Sandlin is optionable with upside, something that the Jays pen lacks. He might not factor into much value at all this year, but they just need to stockpile guys like him. Nice little throw in.

With the full trade finally out, this is a Cleveland salary dump. Horwitz is a good player, but how much WAR will he even put up over his years there? If Horwitz got to 10 WAR I would be shocked. Gimenez can get that in no time, and he just costs more to do it. The team got better. I think I like that. It can’t be the move, but it can be one of them. Gimenez is really good. It looks like there’s more to come.