What’s on my mind

Jose Berríos, Mitch Keller, Prospect Tiers, Daulton Varsho, Corner OFs

Jose Berríos and Mitch Keller

As the Jays look for pitching help at the deadline I’ve done a bit of a 180 on Keller. I was very much against dealing for him, thinking his solid but pedestrian numbers in a pitchers ball park would inflate heavily coming over to the AL East. And while those are real concerns, my bigger concern has become Berríos. While the numbers on the surface look solid enough with a 3.87 ERA and 4.29 FIP, the velocity drop he’s been experiencing keeps being a huge red flag. He’s down more than a mile an hour and it’s been a steady trend down as the seasons progressed.

There was a small uptick last start but that was on a weeks rest. If only the Jays could have an eight man rotation to get the best out of their 30+ year old starters. I don’t know what’s going on but is there a secret injury? Is this just physical degradation? Either way, if the velo trends continue, I can’t trust him.

Now that brings me back to Keller. He reminds me of Twins Berríos, solid career put up in a central division. I think there’s actually some upside with Keller too, he’s shown better K rates in the past. But like Berríos, the fastballs aren’t good anymore. The stuff numbers have dropped since they were awesome in 2023 to below average. He’s a six pitch guy with his slider holding up the whole thing. The problem with Keller is the more you stare at the numbers the less you like him. I think if I was more critical in 2021 I would’ve felt the same way about Berríos too.

But I think a Keller acquisition would come down to a desire for certainty in the rotation. No pitcher is certain, but Keller can come in and throw innings, and with three years of control, he can step into pending free agent Chris Bassitt’s spot next year and beyond. While it would be amazing to grab a game one of the playoffs pitcher, grabbing high floor guys to make sure nothing spirals away while you’re front running is fine with me. It all comes down to acquisition cost.

The Tiers Of Prospects

If you can picture a tier list of prospects for every farm:

A. High ceiling top 100 prospects

B. Lower ceiling back half of the top 100s and lower

C. Young low minors potential future top 100 guys

D. Older plug and play triple A guys/older data darlings

E. Organizational slop

Generally these are what make up farms. Let me know if I’m missing a tier. No one touches A tier in trades at the deadline anymore. A guy like Keller might be any combination of B, C, and D. I have the Berríos trade as two B tier prospects. No chance there’s an A tier guy going for Keller alone. If the Pirates have an inkling for D tier guys, think current Pirate Spencer Horwitz, the Jays could get creative. Maybe a little C tier and D tier and you’re eating good. Either way, I don’t think in the long run looking back the Keller deal will have killed you, even if it feels like a lot up front.

Just back to the tiers, the Jays being flush with D tier guys bodes well in their favour, with a ton of these sellers hoping to compete next year. You may not think every Will Wagner or Joey Loperfido or RJ Schreck is very good, but it takes one seller who’s model thinks they’re underrated to make a deal. And look around baseball, there aren’t many teams with this kind of D tier to play with, because then they’d be tapping into it themselves, looking at you Oswald Pereza and the Yankees. The Jays themselves have shown how valuable D tier guys are, they’ve basically floated on them to first place this year.

Other teams definitely have more A tier guys, but few if any will break that glass this deadline. The sneaking feeling for me is the Jays aren’t scared to do that, which might pose as an advantage for them. Can they go to a level other teams fold at? We will just have to see.

Varsho comin’

Thank god. This team needs Daulton Varsho so bad. Another power threat is going to go such a long way, this team has been needing one guy who randomly cleans up the bases with one swing with all the on base in front of him. My hope with his arrival will be a reduction in Ernie Clements at bats against RHP, and in turn more time at third for Addison Barger. Clements struggles against RHP this season has been well documented and while I don’t need him glued to the bench against everyone single one, he can definitely sit more. Barger has sneaky been very bad in right to my eyes, he doesn’t have much feel or range at the position, but he can absolutely throw that ball, which does raise his floor as a defender. Still, you watch Loperfido or Lukes in a corner and you feel so much more confident a ball is getting caught.

Most likely it’ll be Loperfido sent down for Varsho, but I’d love for it to be Leo Jimenez. I can’t quit Loperfido, who looks awesome in the corners, and loading up on lefties would be great. Versus RHP:

Lukes LF

Springer DH

Guerrero 1B

Bichette SS

Barger 3B

Kirk C

Varsho CF

Loperfido RF

Wagner 2B

Leaving Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, and Myles Straw as your pinch hit options. Maybe I like Wagner and Loperfido too much. Maybe I’m too harsh on Clement, whose defence deserves to play. But that’s a versatile lineup to me, with three full platoons which pleases me.

Should Davis Schneider Play More?

Davis has impressed me this year. He’s been patient at the plate while hitting for power. He currently plays against everyone lefty, but might there be more righties for him to start against? I remember the most interesting start of the season for Davis was him playing over Lukes against Will Warren, who gets killed by lefties. Davis had seen him in the minors, so maybe it was a familiarity thing, but I think there’s something more. Davis has the most uppercut swing on the Jays with an attack angle of 21 degrees. Swings like that do tons of damage against pitches low in the zone. Warren’s MO is low in the zone, which three breaking pitches and a sinker which are used 60% of the time. He’s above average at getting ground balls, and throws with average velocity. These are the righties I’d target if I want to play Davis more. Think about it this way, Davis is the antithesis of Vlad, who’s flat swing is made for up in the zone, and he gets killed by ground ball pitchers. Let’s get those attack angle platoons rolling.

The Offseason of Bad Corner Outfielders

With news of Anthony Santander being so far off from return, it got me thinking about how this team would’ve been better off without him, considering how everything’s gone. And it looks like almost every team who got in the corner OF market feels the same. Take a look y’all:

Anthony Santander

63 wRC+, -0.9 WAR

Teoscar Hernandez

100 wRC+, 0.1 WAR

Max Kepler

88 wRC+, 0.3 WAR

Michael Conforto

79 wRC+, -0.4 WAR

Tyler O’Neil

62 wRC+, -0.5 WAR

Jurickson Profar

96 wRC+, -0.2 WAR

Sometimes the best move you make is no move. Or the move of signing Juan Soto (151 wRC+, 3 WAR). The one offseason move I do feel real stupid about now is Cody Bellinger, acquired as a salary dump from the Cubs, who’s put up a 133 wRC+ with 3.3 WAR. He could’ve played the hell out of the corners for the Jays and held down centre in Varsho’s absence. Alas, the Yankees look like geniuses. Can’t win em all.

Yanks Tonight

I’m hoping Chris Bassitt throws a solid enough game tonight to keep it close. The Yankees have Max Fried pitching, who still has the uncertainty of his blister that may or may not still be lingering. If the Jays can get to the Yankees pen tonight, it’s pretty decimated. Devin Williams and Tim Hill are probably down, pitching in three of four games. Luke Weaver did more than an inning with 30 pitches, putting him at maybe for tonight. Ian Hamilton pitched yesterday, fully warmed up on Monday, pitched Sunday and Friday. And after that it’s Scott Effross, JT Brubaker, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Allan Winans. Could be some good eatin’ back there. Here’s hoping it matters.